Tour de France 2026: our assessment of the top five - released on Monday, July, 27th
Throughout the 2026 Tour de France, we measured and compared the performances of the leading contenders on the major climbs. These figures help us assess each rider’s current level, understand how they are progressing and consider what they may be capable of achieving over the coming seasons.
The VAM figures presented below are estimates based on the most significant climbs and comparable effort durations. They should not be considered absolute physiological measurements: gradient, altitude, wind, drafting, rider freshness and race tactics can all influence the results.
| Rider | 2026 result | Estimated VAM | Future outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tadej Pogačar | Winner | 1,950 m/h | Still untouchable |
| Remco Evenepoel | 2nd | 1,700 to 1,820 m/h | A credible challenger in 2027 |
| Isaac Del Toro | 3rd | 1,800 m/h | A potential Giro favourite |
| Paul Seixas | 4th | 1,790 m/h | A future podium contender |
| Lenny Martinez | 5th | 1,760 m/h | A major step forward in consistency |
| Jonas Vingegaard | Did not finish | Approximately 1,820 m/h | Still capable of winning a Grand Tour |
Tadej Pogačar: reaching new heights
Unsurprisingly, Tadej Pogačar is the dominant winner of the 2026 Tour de France. With an estimated VAM of around 1,950 m/h over 30 minutes, he is performing at a truly exceptional level. He even appears to have improved slightly compared with previous seasons.
The Slovenian remains virtually untouchable when the race comes down to pure climbing power in the major mountain passes. His rivals may occasionally limit their losses or benefit from a favourable tactical situation, but nobody currently appears capable of matching his level across the full three weeks.
We should nevertheless remain realistic: Pogačar is probably approaching the physiological peak of his career. This does not mean that he is about to decline. It simply suggests that his 2026 Tour performance may represent a maximum level that he will now aim to maintain rather than significantly improve.
Thanks to his experience, race intelligence and the marginal gains that may still be available, he could remain the best rider in the world for many years. He may no longer need to become stronger. Maintaining this level could be enough for him to accumulate further major victories and establish himself permanently in the debate over the greatest cyclist of all time.
Remco Evenepoel: the major positive surprise
Remco Evenepoel is probably the biggest positive surprise of the 2026 Tour de France. The Belgian already has an outstanding palmarès, but his previous Tour performances had sometimes been disappointing, with significant time losses in the major mountain stages despite his extraordinary time-trialling ability.
This year, his relentless work on his climbing appears to have paid off. We estimated his VAM at around 1,700 m/h during the first part of the Tour, before seeing him improve to approximately 1,820 m/h on the later major climbs.
This progression during the race is particularly encouraging. Remco appears to be returning to performances that are closer to the potential he displayed before his serious crash at Il Lombardia. He remains below Pogačar’s level in the high mountains, but he is gradually reducing the gap.
In 2027, a stronger opening week and a route offering more time-trial kilometres could allow him to become a credible challenger to Pogačar. To win the Tour, he will still need to improve further in the mountains, but he now appears to be one of the few riders capable of combining consistency, climbing power and superiority against the clock.
Isaac Del Toro: a deserved first Tour podium
With an estimated VAM of around 1,800 m/h, Isaac Del Toro confirmed that he already belongs among the leading Grand Tour riders of his generation.
The Mexican benefited from the protection of an exceptionally strong UAE team, as well as direct support from Tadej Pogačar whenever the race situation allowed it. This collective advantage played a role, but it does not fully explain his third place: Del Toro displayed remarkable consistency throughout the three weeks.
His first Tour de France will probably help him progress even further. His climbing level is already approaching that of Evenepoel, but his time-trial performances remain insufficient for him to become a genuine Tour favourite against more complete riders.
In 2027, however, he could become one of the leading favourites for the Giro d’Italia. To move to the next level at the Tour de France, he will need to improve against the clock and learn to carry the responsibility of leading a race without always benefiting from Pogačar’s protective presence.
Paul Seixas: has France found its future Tour winner?
We may be slightly biased, but Paul Seixas could almost have deserved a place on the podium. From our perspective, he performed at almost the same level as Isaac Del Toro throughout this Tour de France.
We estimate his best VAM at around 1,790 m/h, compared with approximately 1,800 m/h for Del Toro. The difference between the two riders in the final general classification can therefore also be explained by race circumstances and the collective strength of UAE Team Emirates.
Paul Seixas should not be viewed solely as a climber. During the spring, he had already demonstrated remarkable potential as a puncheur, capable of pushing Pogačar to his limits on explosive climbs lasting only a few minutes. This combination of punch, power and endurance is what makes his potential so exciting.
The fact that he completed all three weeks without suffering a major collapse may be the most important information of all. The raw potential is clearly there, together with the durability required to target a Grand Tour general classification.
Seixas also expresses himself with impressive maturity and clarity. He appears to understand where he wants to go and how to structure his development. As early as 2027, he could have the tools to beat Del Toro across several types of terrain and even outperform Remco Evenepoel on certain major climbs. There is still a long way to go before he can beat Pogačar, but the potential to become a future Tour de France winner is genuinely there.
Lenny Martinez: a major step forward in consistency
Lenny Martinez is the other major French surprise of the 2026 Tour. We already knew that he was capable of outstanding performances on individual stages of races such as Paris–Nice or the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, but his inconsistency had previously ruled him out of contention for the general classification.
With an estimated VAM of around 1,760 m/h, he has now proved that he can maintain a very high level in the mountains over three weeks. He has become a strong general-classification climber, even though he is not yet capable of regularly dropping the very best riders.
His attitude during the Alpe d’Huez stage attracted criticism and is unlikely to help him make allies within the peloton. His team also appeared slightly short of the strength required to protect and support him against powerful squads such as UAE, Visma or Soudal.
His extremely light build is an advantage on steep gradients, but it can become a limitation in time trials, exposed stages and long flat sections. For the moment, this makes a Tour de France podium difficult to achieve.
Nevertheless, finishing inside the top five represents a major step in his development. If he can gain more power without losing his climbing qualities, the dream of a Tour podium could become more realistic. The polka-dot jersey would also be an objective particularly well suited to his characteristics.
Jonas Vingegaard: a Tour ended too soon
The final classification does not tell the full story of Jonas Vingegaard’s Tour de France. Before being forced to abandon following his crash, the Dane had produced a strong first part of the race and remained involved in the battle for the podium.
On the final major climbs he was able to complete, we estimated his level at around 1,820 m/h, which was close to the performance achieved by Remco Evenepoel. He no longer appeared capable of directly threatening Pogačar, but he remained one of the strongest climbers in the race.
The absolute peak of his career may now be behind him. However, this does not mean that he is no longer capable of competing at the highest level. With an extremely strong Visma team and renewed motivation, another Tour de France podium would remain entirely realistic.
Victory at the Giro d’Italia or the Vuelta a España would also represent a logical objective for 2027. After several serious crashes, the main question will concern not only his physical condition, but also his ability to regain the confidence required to race without hesitation.
What should we remember from the 2026 Tour de France?
Tadej Pogačar remains in a category of his own. Behind him, Remco Evenepoel has taken an important step forward in the mountains, while Isaac Del Toro and Paul Seixas already represent the new generation of Grand Tour contenders.
Lenny Martinez has finally demonstrated the consistency required to target a general classification, while Jonas Vingegaard still possesses the level needed to win major races. The 2027 Tour could therefore see an increasingly dense, younger and better-equipped group of challengers attempt to bring Pogačar’s dominance to an end.
```Tour de France 2026: could the first week be more balanced than expected?
The first six stages of the 2026 Tour de France could already shape the hierarchy among the general classification contenders. Pogacar looks ready, Visma remains a collective benchmark, Evenepoel will find terrain suited to his qualities, and the first major battles could arrive as early as the Pyrenees.
Pogacar is in form. He has said so himself, and his climbing speeds in June do not suggest anything reassuring for his rivals in July.
He is capable of winning almost every stage he has targeted... but not all of them. He will also need to manage his team over three weeks of racing. Conversely, he cannot simply wait: as the number one favourite, it is up to him to set the rhythm of the race and force his rivals to respond.
Barcelona: a team time trial that is already strategic
Large gaps are unlikely on this short 19.6 km format, but a handful of seconds could already influence the general classification dynamic.
Visma starts with a slight advantage: its technical strength in team time trials, obsession with lines, cohesion and marginal gains probably make it the benchmark squad in the field. Opposite them, UAE has nothing to envy in terms of raw power, but may not push collective optimisation quite as far.
Tarragona - Barcelona: Montjuïc, Pogacar... but also Evenepoel
The Montjuïc Castle climb, with its steep gradients, appears at first glance to suit Pogacar. But the circuit remains especially fast, and on this type of terrain one name naturally comes to mind: Remco Evenepoel.
Even so, it is hard to imagine major gaps with the peloton still fresh. A first selection, a few seconds gained, and above all a psychological test between the favourites seem more likely.
Granollers - Les Angles: the mountains arrive, but without a decisive wall
The race returns to France through the mountains, with a finish at Les Angles at 1,794 m. The profile is long and wearing, but the gradients are generally moderate.
This is probably not the ideal stage to blow the general classification apart. However, it can already wear riders down, reveal the strongest teams and expose leaders who have struggled to digest the first two days.
Carcassonne - Foix: a day for the strong men
This is the kind of stage where the motorbike speedometer stays stuck at 60 km/h until the breakaway finally goes clear.
The route is too hard for easy control, but perhaps not decisive enough for the favourites to take responsibility for a long-range battle. A strong group up the road, earning its freedom through sheer legs, is therefore easy to imagine.
Lannemezan - Pau: a day for the sprinters?
Unless the race becomes very aggressive, this stage should provide an opportunity for the sprinters.
The Côte de Baleix in the finale could complicate matters for some lead-out trains, but the overall profile remains favourable enough for a bunch or reduced bunch sprint in Pau.
Pau - Gavarnie-Gèdre: Aspin, Tourmalet and the first real verdict
This is the first major appointment of the Tour. With the Aspin - Tourmalet sequence followed by the finish at Gavarnie-Gèdre, the first meaningful gaps can appear.
Everything will depend on UAE's strategy: control the race or make it hard very early? A Pogacar attack on the Tourmalet could quickly create a selection and give him one to two minutes of advantage, but at the cost of a long solo effort all the way to Gavarnie.
The most credible scenario may be a small front group with Pogacar, Vingegaard, Paul Seixas... and perhaps Del Toro, depending on the role UAE gives him: backup leader or luxury domestique tasked with launching Pogacar.
A first week that could already prove decisive?
By the end of this sixth stage, we will already have many answers about the leaders' form. Some may have already lost all hope in the general classification, while the first balance of power in the Tour will begin to take shape.
We will also see contenders for the polka dot jersey and the white jersey emerge. One question remains open: will Del Toro be used as a backup leader, or as a launching pad for Pogacar?
This opening phase of the Tour could therefore be more balanced than it first appears. Pogacar is the boss, but between Visma's collective strength, the fast profile of certain stages and the ambitions of young riders such as Paul Seixas, this first week could already produce several surprises.